Jordan Pollack: A Six-Pack of Financial Projections

Hello Readers! Thank you for clicking on my first MTG finance article even though you have probably never heard my name. I hope to earn your readership and respect by the end of the article, but if I didn’t, feel free to tell me why in the comments below.

“Jordan, how do you know what you’re talking about?”

Good question! In addition to holding an accounting degree, I worked after college for a large card shop with a huge warehouse, and that’s where I got immersed into Magic. I then decided I needed to quit having fun and pursue my career as a tax accountant, which I have been doing for three years.

As a mere child I bought and sold Pokémon cards to pay for my trips to Cici’s pizza buffet. Thus the Accountant and #MTGFinance expert was born. I played YuGiOh and Pokémon as a kid, so I am familiar with the trading card market and traveling for big tournaments.

To kick off my regular finance columns, I’m going to be taking a look at a six-pack of Magic cards that are currently big players — or potential big players — in the market. Without further ado, let’s dive in.

Emrakul, The Promised End
TCG Mid: $22.33
Best Buylist Market price on TCG Player: $13.40
40 percent spread between buylist and sell price
Used in 16.2 percent of decks; 1.3 average copies per deck in Standard

The new flying spaghetti monster started out atemrakulthepromisedend $20 and bottomed out at $12.80 before a huge peak at $30. For a standard card, its spread is decent. I would be looking for closer to a 25- to 30-percent spread if I was thinking of buying in. That means that buyers (Editor’s note: Ahem) have confidence in the card, and can sell it easily. My local store is always sold out, but we have lots of little kids.

As evidenced by Pro Tour Eldritch Moon, the pros prefer longer games and more midrange and control decks reign supreme. No W/R Humans or Mono Red Aggro decks anywhere near the Top 8. Emrakul does have a very unique ability, which combined with a discounted casting cost makes it a Standard playable top end through and through. It will stay around $20-25 while in standard, but its buylist price will go down, as local stores pick up more and more copies as more and more packs are being opened every day. Long-term, look for it to bottom out at $15 when it rotates, similar to Emrakul, the Aeons Torn, and continue to rise slowly if it continues to see eternal play. People are even starting to play it in Tron in Modern, along with Commander, because everyone loves the Ol’ Mindslaver ability.

Liliana, the Last Hope
TCG Mid: $44.23
Best Buylist Market Price: $29.63
33 percent spread
Used in 20.9 percent of decks, 3.1 average copies per deck in Standard

Liliana, the Last Hope is the best 3 CMC planeswalker in Standard.lilianathelasthope B/Gx Delirium decks are everywhere. Black control decks are everywhere. Zombies are everywhere. WOTC R&D has declared that Liliana of the Veil would be too strong for standard, so here we are with this watered down version. Liliana initially started out at $20 before peaking at $50 (thank you very much Pro Tour).

I personally picked up copies in the $25-30 range when I was at Gencon then turned around and resold them all at $45-50, showing just how much a Pro Tour can drive potential profit opportunities if you target the right cards. The spread is pretty good for a standard card, and I expect its price to continue to hedge down as it stabilizes. Sell if you aren’t playing it weekly and buy Modern staples for the Modern summer we are currently in. Liliana of the Veil peaked at $50 in Standard then went all the way down to $20 when it rotated.

Eldritch Evolution
TCG Mid: $5.10
Best Buylist Market Price: $3.85
24 percent spread
Used in zero standard decks, average copies, well, 0

This card hasn’t taken off in Standard yet, but don’t say I didn’t warn you if it does.eldritchevolution Buyers are confident in this card because of its Eternal play. Is it “better” than Chord of Calling? No. Is it more explosive and can close out games faster? Yes. Is it better than Birthing Pod? No, and if you disagree, I’d like to introduce you to my friend Mr. Modern Banned list.

This card is a fantastic lesson on the dangers of early hype. If you bought in on this Standard Rare when it was released at $10, you lost money. There is almost an arbitrage opportunity on this card today, as you can buy the card and sell it for more money. Yay free money! This is a potential home run for mid- to long-term spec. Ask your LGS if you can buy them out at $3 each, to which they probably say yes. You stick 20-30 copies under your bed for a year or so. Then double your money. Boom. Unique ability combined with Eternal play, EDH, and possibly some Standard goodies over the next year is too good a combination to ignore.

Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet
TCG Mid: $23.94
Best Buylist Market Price: $16.10
32 percent spread
Used in 8.9 percent of Standard decks, average copies 1.8

I like this card, but not for Standard. Modern Jund is having a ball with this card. kalitastraitorofghetIt oozes with card text, along with having the ever-important 4 toughness to dodge the initial lightning bolt. Combine it with Slaughter Pact and you’re guaranteed value. Its spread is decent if you want to buy in now, but I would wait till rotation and snap em at less than $5. (I did the same with Olivia Voldaren and Huntmaster of the Fells, and I more than doubled up on those.) This card is a good curve topper, but a Standard with all them Eldrazi floating around is not the best standard environment for a card that requires a lot of work to be more than a 3/4 ground-pounder with a nice static ability. I mean really, people are playing that Wretched Gryff, a common Eldrazi (and hippogriff I guess?) It’s a 3/4 flyer that replaces itself which can come down on turn 4 as well. Seems almost better.

 

 

Grafdigger’s Cage
TCG Mid: $10.89
Best Buylist Market Price: $5.49? (Really people? Sell them to me! I will buy all your copies at $6 shipped, end rant)
50 percent spread, gross
Used in every modern sideboard, ever. Ever and forever.
Used in 31.3 percent of Modern sideboards AND top of the list may I add; Average copies 1.6

This card has so many matchups in Modern that I want to side this in that it’s bonkers. Jund plays it, Affinity plays it, Tron plays it, Infect plays it. Heck my Bogles deck plays it. If you don’t know why this card is good, stop reading this. It’s 1 colorless mana. Period. Mono-Waste Eldrazi deck can cast that! You can play it on turn 1 if you draw it and win the game. Period. The spread isn’t that good because people still have a price memory point of the card being $3-4 dollars, which it was in May of 2016. Today, not so much. If you are casually trading at your LGS, try to pick these up in the 4-5 dollar range, as some people will let it go because they aren’t using it. There are plenty of copies out there, but this card is seeing play in all eternal formats. I am pretty high on this card to continue to go up and up. Low CMC, any deck can play it, very relevant hate card. I’m a buyer.

Sanctum Prelate
TCG Mid: $25.64
Buylist N/A because it’s not 8/26/2016 yet
Used in eternal formats for sure

Death and Taxes. Need I say more? Already a tier 1 deck on the rise.sanctumprelate Wizards finally gives us something for the deck that doesn’t have 1 toughness. (“But Jordan, its casting cost is too restrictive.” See 4x Aether Vial. Now zip it. Zip. It.) This card is going to be very good in Legacy and hopefully Vintage as most noncreature spells are CMC 1 or 2. In Vintage, maybe even zero because Moxes and Black Lotus are not fair magic cards any more (Editor’s note: Any more?).

As for its price, $25 is a bit high; I would wait for it to come down. Right now the EV on a box of Conspiracy: Take the Crown is close to $120, which means you can buy a box for $90 and make $30 realistically. This obviously won’t be the case for long because stores will start cracking their unlimited supply and race to the bottom of the TCG player page in pricing. I would be a buyer at $8-10, but don’t quote me on that. The card may never go that low.

 

 

Ask the Audience

Jordan Pollack is a Tax Accountant and Magic player from suburban Chicago. He holds an accounting degree from the University of Kansas and is currently pursuing CPA certification. He enjoys watching the Blackhawks and doing manly things like fixing a leaky sink, grilling, and making sure his girlfriend has everything she needs (and wants).

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